I’m Brad Rouse from Hiawassee Georgia. I’ve spent my entire career in planning, most of it in the energy industry. I received degrees in economics and business from Yale and North Carolina. I led the development of software used by Georgia Power in their Integrated Resource planning process. For the last 2 years I have been studying the issue of climate change and how that issue will affect planning in the energy sector. Over that time I have most often viewed issues in terms or risk and reward. It is in those terms that I would like to register my support today for Georgia Power’s purchase of wind energy and to encourage them and the commission to consider additional purchases.
As I understand it, the proposed purchase contract is below avoided cost, so that is the easy part. You should approve this request on those considerations alone. But there are a number of additional reasons to consider:
The first reason is that more wind energy will complement the expansion of solar energy already approved by the commission. As solar energy expands, the problem of intermittency will increase. Wind complements solar because wind power is strong at night and in the winter, times when the solar output is low, and with more wind, overall intermittency is reduced without expensive storage.
I would point the commission to a study on the potential for renewable energy in the Northeast and Midwest performed by General Electric Company and funded by the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland Interconnection , otherwise known as PJM, released on March 31, 2014. This study concludes that the PJM system would be able to accommodate 30% renewable energy penetration without significant strain. A major reason for this is the fact that solar and wind load profiles are complementary. Quoting from this study: “The trends (for wind) show lower power output during the midday hours, especially during the summer season. This trend is complementary to solar profiles which naturally peak during midday and have higher production during the summer season.” What I read from this report is that solar works better when you have wind. Furthermore, you can purchase less expensive wind power that doesn’t need to be “firmed up” precisely because you also have solar energy in the mix. I will be happy to share this copy of the study for perusal by the commissioners or staff, and I would recommend that Georgia Power and the Southern Company System commission a similar study.
The second reason is timing. Solar costs are declining rapidly, but wind costs could actually be increasing in the near future. This is because the projects now that are under consideration still have the federal production tax credit available, but future products will likely not have this advantage. So I say line up what you can now because the deal may not be this good again for a while.
Another timing issue involves transmission. The ample supply of the wind resources of the great plains is limited by the current transmission system. Locking in wind contracts which have the transmission locked in as well will be lower cost than future projects which require new transmission. The early bird gets the worm.
Third, in addition to these rewards, additional wind power also reduces risk. It increases diversity of supply and it doesn’t use fuel so it reduces the risk of inflation.
Additional wind power also reduces the risk to the system of climate change. I’m not referring to some moral risk such as damage to coral reefs, displaced Bangladeshis, or higher food prices, but to a hard nosed business risk.
It is the overwhelming scientific consensus that fossil fuel burning thickens the earth’s greenhouse causing a warming effect. Even many climate change skeptics and deniers, such as John Christy at Alabama Huntsville, agree with this. But beyond that there is much uncertainty and disagreement.
But what if the danger is on the high end of the risks outlined by the recent report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? What if these climate scientists are proven right as additional warming becomes apparent? If so, then immediate and strong action will be needed and will achieve strong public support.. Much of our current investment in fossil fuels will be stranded. We will conclude that we must end most of our use of fossil fuel and transform to a utility system that relies primarily on resources like wind and solar and efficiency. This progression will be much less expensive and less disruptive if we hedge our bets now. If the pessimistic climate scenario plays out, then the acquisition of additional wind power now at an attractive time at an attractive rate will look like a brilliant master stroke.
But what if climate change turns out to be less severe? In that case if we adding more wind power now at a favorable rate will look a reasonable business decision as part of the traditional planning process. That’s not a bad outcome either.
I think in conclusion that the balance of the benefits and the balance of the risks strongly favor the path of asking Georgia Power to procure additional wind power.
Awareness Advocacy Action 